By The Numbers: Every Run Has A Purpose
The importance of the bigger picture when training doesn't go so well
Marathon training is cyclical. There is a base phase, typically the first 3-4 weeks of a training plan, that establishes the foundation and gets runners used to increased volume and longer runs. The next 8 weeks are when volume increases peak, and when runners have longer and more intense runs. The last 4 weeks are for final preparation, where runners sharpen their fitness and taper their runs to save their legs for race day.
Anyone who has trained for a marathon knows that in addition to these phases, there are emotional phases throughout a training block as well. The high that accompanies a new training block is replaced with fatigue and doubt, and requires an increased mental focus. What dictates how lasting these mood swings are is the feeling that follows each run. Some workouts leave runners feeling like a personal best is within reach, while others are discouraging. Was it easy? Did I feel strong and fast today? Did the run get cut short due to some physical limitations? Can this treadmill get any more boring?
This is why it is important to track progress over time. I am 7 weeks into my training block, preparing to attempt a qualifying time for the 2025 Chicago Marathon. I need to shave 43 minutes off my personal best, crossing the finish line in 3 hours and 10 minutes. But I am no different than any other runner,and am not immune to any of the physical and emotional waves during a training block. Luckily, there were reminders that progress is still happening, and every run has a purpose.
Mileage increases and predicted race times
One of the things I have been measuring throughout this grand running experiment is the impact increased mileage has on my expected race times. I was shocked when the training for my last marathon only averaged 19 miles per week. So far, I am averaging far more miles, averaging 26 per week through 7 weeks, a 38% increase in weekly volumes.
That increased mileage has led to big returns on my projected race times, with a current projected marathon finish of 3:34:57. That is a 12-minute improvement on my projected time since the beginning of my training block in February and a 19-minute improvement since my base-building phase of training; an 8% improvement on my personal best.
This equals a projected race pace of 8:12 per mile, and while still a minute behind the goal pace of 7:15 per mile, it is a big improvement from where things started.
The benefit and cost of each mile
I’ll admit that a 12-minute improvement was a surprise, given how the last few weeks have gone. Sickness, travel, weather, and life had gotten in the way of some runs, causing me to miss runs my training plan called for. All in all, 5 workouts were missed, with 3 of the 5 being my long runs for the corresponding week. I missed long runs of 13, 10, and 16 miles, causing the other long runs to be much harder than anticipated. I felt wrecked during my latest long run of 17 miles, with depleted and cramped legs showing up halfway through the run. Yet I was surprised that even though the run was less than perfect it still showed gains.
And that got me thinking about the benefits and cost of each mile that I run.
So far, I have run 185.3 miles during the training block, and when figured against my improvement of 12 minutes and 23 seconds, I can figure that each mile I run is worth a 4-second improvement of my projected finish. I’ve missed 48 miles of running (based on what my training plan calls for), equaling a total of 3 minutes and 12 seconds left on the table in missed runs.
So what is the big picture?
Based on these figures, I am realizing 83% of the gains the training plan calls for. Let’s call this my training effectiveness ratio.
As the mileage called for in my training plan increases, the unit benefit and cost of each mile will (hopefully) increase and have a compounding effect on projected times.
I don’t think any runner with a life has ever operated at 100%, hitting every run and realizing the full gains.
This is an extremely nerdy way to think about running (yet it’s kind of my schtick at this point) but gives every run a purpose, no matter how boring or difficult.
Don’t skip your long run if you can help it.
The next 3 weeks call for 40 - 50 miles of running each week, with a 20-mile long run in 2 weeks. What will happen to the per-mile improvement of each of these runs? Will 4 seconds turn into something larger? In any case, it’s vital to keep pounding the pavement. Each mile matters.