By the numbers: the show goes on
An attempt at a 3:10 marathon, training reflections, and what's next
Well, my first crack at a 3:10 marathon and Chicago qualifying time came and went. On the bright side, I recorded personal bests at the 10k, half-marathon, and full marathon distances. On the downside, I came up short, which means the quest goes on. I’ll admit the last two weeks of doing absolutely nothing and eating and drinking whatever I want has been a glorious vacation from training six days a week and trying to organize my life around a marathon, but I am starting to get the itch to get moving again and went for my first post-race run a few days ago. My legs felt it.
But alas these By the Numbers columns are supposed to be an analysis of the bigger picture and a progress report of how the quest for a major marathon qualifier is going, so it’s time to put on the analyst hat and get into things.
The progress report: expectations vs. reality, and what to make of the data
As I point out in each one of these updates, there are two key questions I am trying to answer with the data provided by my training.
What is the impact of each mile of training on my marathon time? I call this the training effectiveness ratio.
How many miles do I need to run each week to be in shape to run a 3:10 marathon? The original hypothesis, based on data collected from Strava showed that 3:10 marathoners ran an average of 40 miles per week.
I’ve been using the data from my Garmin to answer these questions, looking at the race predictors each week and tracking my estimated marathon finish time. After 1 full marathon training cycle, here’s what happened.
I began my base-building for the marathon training block in October to prepare for the increase in mileage during training, as well as work my way up to 40 miles per week. Since that time I ran a total of 770 miles before race day. My training began in earnest and during that block, I logged 530 miles. If we look at the total number of weeks in these periods (32 weeks since the beginning of October and 16 weeks since the beginning of training), that’s an average of 24 miles per week and 33 miles per week respectively, depending on the time frame we measure. This of course is not an average of 40 miles per week. Nevertheless, Garmin’s race predictor algorithm projected a race pace of 7:27 as of race day morning, projecting a finish of 3:15:31.
Two things here. First, the biggest indicator of marathon times has proven to be average weekly mileage, and I came up short. This was going to be the first thing I pointed to if 3:10 didn’t happen in Cleveland. While I ran a lot, I did not run enough (at least by the figures I was basing this goal on). Second, even with the knowledge that my projected time was 3:15 and that I wasn’t in 3:10 shape, I decided to run at 3:10 pace as long as I could and ended up being in the game through 16 miles. Who knows what would’ve happened if I ran at 3:15 pace instead of 3:10? I may have been able to avoid the burnout that happened and finish better than 3:44, but I decided to be aggressive from the start and paid the price.
Another question is how much my aggressive approach impacted the projected times compared to what happened on race day. My actual pace ended up being 8:30, a full minute slower per mile than what my projections showed. From mile 16 on, I had multiple bouts of cramping, causing me to walk through water stations, stretch my calves and hamstrings, and hobble along at a slower pace. And while I may have not been in shape to run 3:10, I know I was in better shape than 3:44.
The corrected(?) training effectiveness ratio
The aggressive strategy also affects the relative value of each mile in the training. The 3:15:31 projected finish was a 31-minute and 50-second improvement from the start of the training block, equating to a 6-second improvement in projected times for each mile logged. But my actual time of 3:44 was only a 3-minute improvement from what my projected time was at the end of the first week (3:47:21), less than a 1-second improvement in times per mile.
A less than 1-second improvement is just depressing, and I am refusing to admit that those 530 miles in training paid so few dividends. I was in much better shape than that, and if those returns were real, I would’ve just shown up to the start line on race day and gone full tortoise mode, slow and steady at my easy run pace.
This brings a new variable into the equation: What is the value of knowledge and experience that comes with running races? I did a fair amount of running at race pace in training, but nothing over 10 miles, and none of those runs were in the heat I experienced on race day or the pacing that my group chose. I had no experience running that fast for that long in those conditions.
So, now what?
I received a lot of questions following Cleveland about what comes next in my quest to run a 3:10 marathon. The goal is still important, so my training will reflect that and I am pushing to still qualify. Will that happen for the 2025 race? That’s to be determined. Qualifiers need to be complete by the end of November, and that realistically leaves one more attempt at a fall race to make it happen. I don’t have a race scheduled but will think through where my fitness is at and what life allows.
But this training block did teach me a few things that I need to incorporate to improve my chances if I were to make another go of it:
Weekly mileage - I didn’t average the 40 miles per week benchmark. Building to this point is important. I still want to see the impact this has on overall times.
Strength training and nutrition - I felt fine aerobically in Cleveland, yet my muscles cramped and my legs felt heavy in the second half of the race. With better emphasis on strength, nutrition, and hydration I could be in better shape to fight those things off.
Racing strategies - I think a big part of marathon success comes from knowing how to race over 26.2 miles, and learning how to race is a skill. 3 marathons is more than most, but I am still a rookie. I like the idea of racing more, and running fast 5k, 10k, or half marathons in my build-up to a marathon to get more experience with fast racing and being able to hit my goals. Increased confidence comes from that experience.
Is there some guru way of training with the expectation that the weather might not be in your favor, but still allow you to achieve your goal? Runner or not, I’m convinced temps affect EVERYTHING.