Will NBA Finals Ratings Continue To Slide?
Ratings have been falling. Will Indy-OKC help?
Out of the corner of my eye, I was paying attention to the outcome of Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Pacers and Knicks on Saturday. And as the Pacers pulled away and it became apparent they would advance to the Finals against the Thunder, I started wondering what an OKC-Indy series would mean for the league. Specifically, who’s gonna watch this?
The irony is that there is little doubt the Pacers and Thunder are the league’s two best teams. OKC has had a historic run this year, and Indy went through the Eastern Conference in pretty entertaining fashion. They have earned the chance to play for a championship. But outside of Indianapolis and Oklahoma City, I’m unsure if anyone other than basketball sickos and local fanbases have any interest.
Fewer people have been watching The Finals in recent years, and ratings have been significantly lower since the peak of Finals viewership this century, the 2017 matchup between the Cavs and Warriors.
During the 2015 - 2018 stretch where viewership hit the 20-million mark, The Finals were full of household names, including LeBron James and Steph Curry. The de facto faces of the NBA drove viewership numbers. The Pacers and Thunder have emerging face-of-the-league candidates in Tyrese Haliburton and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but the average sports fan probably couldn’t identify them like they could Lebron or Steph. They aren't as likely to be a household name outside of dedicated NBA fans or people living outside their respective markets.
Markets have a significant role in viewership as well, even if leagues pretend that it doesn’t. It's also helpful that one of those teams (the Warriors) is located in one of America's largest markets. San Francisco is a top 5 city in terms of population in the league. That goes a long way in maximizing viewership. Indianapolis and Oklahoma City both rank in the bottom tier of markets.
The 2025 Finals lack the narratives of previous Finals matchups. OKC is heavily favored to win, and there isn't noticeable beef between rosters, something that the Warriors and Cavs matchups had in spades.
How will the numbers shake out? I think ratings will continue to slide and if I had to put a number out there, I think this year’s Finals will average around 8 million viewers, figuring the majority of each team’s market will tune in, along with the basketball die-hards.
Is that good for a league that just signed massive TV deals with ESPN, NBC, and Amazon? Probably not. But the league will tell you that it is more popular than ever, and TV viewership isn’t the only metric to look at when considering how successful the league is. They have a point; people are consuming sports differently today. But viewership is still the best gauge we have. Along with a decline in regular season ratings, a ratings slide in the Finals would surely add to the discourse of a league at an inflection point.